Jack McKessyUSA TODAY
Show Caption
Nearly halfway through MLB's 2024 season, some of the game's best power hitters have done well to establish (or re-establish) themselves. So as MLB All-Star weekend festivities near, it is the perfect time to speculate on a potential field for this year's Home Run Derby.
The annual competition sets up the best power hitters of the early season in a head-to-head contest to determine the league's home run king for that year. Last year, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. joined his father as a Home Run Derby champion and made the two the first father-son duo to both win the contest.
Through roughly 80 games of the season for each team, there are a few players that we'd most like to see in this year's competition. Whether they have already hit 20 home runs, are barreling the ball at an exceptionally high rate or come from an underappreciated team, these are the eight players we hope step up to the plate in mid-July.
HOME RUNS: Guardians prospect homers in first MLB at-bat - and his former teammates go wild
2024 MLB Home Run Derby: Eight players we want to see
1. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Um, duh.
Judge is MLB's home run leader this year with 30 blasts in the Yankees' first 80 games of the season. At this pace, the 32-year-old slugger can match (or potentially surpass) his 62-homer season in 2022, which broke the American League record.
As much as we'd like to see Judge in the contest, it might be too tall an ask. The 2022 AL MVP told reporters that year that he likely wouldn't participate again unless New York hosted the MLB All-Star Game again (the Yankees last hosted in 2008; the Mets, in 2013). This year, the Texas Rangers will host All-Star weekend at Globe Life Field.
2. Giancarlo Stanton
This idea may also be a bit farfetched after Stanton suffered a hamstring injury on Saturday. He told reporters it will keep him sidelined for roughly four weeks. The Home Run Derby would be around the three and a half week span, so it's not an impossibility, but not exactly likely either.
The case for Stanton is that – prior to his injury – he looked the best he has in years, slugging 18 home runs with a respectable .246 batting average and 120 OPS+. The average and OPS+ marks are his best since 2021, and his 36 home run pace would be his best since 2018, his first season in New York.
Would the 2016 Home Run Derby champion return to the big stage at 34 years old? We may never know.
3. Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
Henderson is another AL East slugger who has been crushing baseballs all season. The 2023 AL Rookie of the Year has an astounding 26 home runs as the second-place Orioles' leadoff hitter, putting him second in all of MLB and just four homers shy of Judge.
One year after teammate Adley Rutschman slugged 27 home runs in his Home Run Derby debut, Henderson has every reason to earn his spot in the contest. The shortstop turns 23 on Saturday, is in his second full season in the big leagues and is on pace for more than 50 home runs and a spot in the AL MVP conversation.
4. Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians lead the AL Central by eight games and have the best record in the American League. Their 51-27 record (.654 win percentage) trails only the Philadelphia Phillies (53-27, .663) in all of MLB.
A good portion of that success has been thanks to Naylor, who is having the best power-hitting season of his career so far. Prior to 2023, the first baseman's career high in home runs was 20. As of Thursday, Naylor already has 20 home runs.
The peripheral stats all back up the production too. The 27 year old is barreling the ball 11.3% of the time he steps up to the plate, putting him in the 70th percentile across MLB and a far higher mark than ever before in his career.
MLB in 2024: 9 key numbers from MLB's first half: Aaron Judge matching historic home run pace
5. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ohtani is either at or near the top of MLB in just about every important statistic so far this season. He's first in batting average (.322), third in home runs (25), second in OPS (1.045), third in WAR (4.7) and second in total bases (200). He leads in the National League in each of those categories.
The Japanese phenom isn't just good, he's so far lived up to the richest contract in the history of North American sports as the face of the league. Of course we'd like to see him bash some home runs in the Home Run Derby for the first time since 2021. However, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is less excited about that prospect given how the physical exertion it requires could affect Ohtani's recovery from Tommy John surgery.
6. Yordan Álvarez, Houston Astros
Álvarez turned 27 on Thursday and has already made it clear through five full seasons that he is one of the best power hitters in today's game. So it seems impossible that through five seasons (and four with a Home Run Derby) that the Cuban slugger has never participated.
By his sky-high standards, 2024 has been a "down" year for Álvarez with a .288 batting average (22nd in MLB), a career-low .876 OPS (13th) and 16 home runs (T-15th). Again, these stats are in a down year as his barrel percentage (13%) ranks in the 87th percentile of all qualified hitters and his average exit velocity (92.8 mph) is in the 94th percentile.
Álvarez has said in the past that participation in the Derby would interest him, and what better way to do it than as the villain in the Rangers' stadium?
7. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds' shortstop is one of the most electrifying young players in the game today. Though De La Cruz's 14 home runs are lackluster compared to some other competitors, it's already a career-high, and he's still right about on pace for a 30-home run season.
Peripheral statistics also back up De La Cruz's power if the home run tally underwhelms. The 22-year-old Dominican powerhouse ranks above the 85th percentile in MLB in average exit velocity (91.8 mph), bat speed (74.6 mph) and barrel percentage (12.9%).
8. Brent Rooker, Oakland Athletics
He hasn't gotten a lot of buzz as a member of the American League's second-worst team, but Rooker has been one of the few bright spots in the A's last season in Oakland. His 14 home runs match De La Cruz for 23rd place on the MLB leaderboard, and his .845 OPS is just shy of the top 20 this year. The 2023 All-Star is having a career year in his second season as a full-time player. He's on pace to match his 30 home runs from last year.
What has made Rooker such a valuable power hitter for Oakland is his ability to square up the ball. The 29-year-old designated hitter is in the top 6% of MLB in barrel percentage (15.7%) and hard-hit percentage (52.3%) – defined by a ball hit at a higher than 95 mph exit velocity.
In Oakland's last season with a major sports franchise in the city, it deserves to see one of its stars shine in the Home Run Derby.
MLB MOCK DRAFT: Who's going No. 1? Top prospects after College World Series
